VegasTopDogs Sports Blog

Sports Articles, Fantasy, and Predictions

2017 Baseball Underdogs

Many square gamblers tend to play the favorites more often than they bet on an underdog in baseball. The average baseball gambler sees the team that is supposed to win and looks at the other team as the one who is supposed to lose. Losing is no fun so it’s tough for some players to realize it can be profitable to lose more games than you win as long as your return on each bet is greater than your risk.
The real key to being successful if you are going to bet on baseball is to find value. Value is the difference between the price you are getting with the odds and the true chances of a team winning. For instance, if you think a team has a 50% chance of winning a game and you are getting +110 on the team, that’s a great bet and you should make your wager. If you are getting -110 on that team, that means you have a negative expectation and should not. Going back the last five years in MLB combined you will find the following results for underdogs and favorites:
Favorites: 7,476-5,580 (57.3%) Avg. Line = -142.8
Underdogs: 4,443-6,360 (41.1%) Avg. Line = 137.6
With the 57.3% winning percentage you would have to get odds of -134 on each game just to break even. The true odds were closer to -144 so you can see the 10 cent expected loss on each favorite.
On the other hand if you won only 41.1% of your games you would only need to get odds of +143.3 to show a profit. The true odds were 137.6 for a difference of 5.7, a lot less than with the favorite but still not profitable.
You can see if you stick to underdogs you are ahead of the game, but you can’t bet them blindly because you will still end up behind.

Written by TJ Masterline of VegasTopDogs.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Information

This entry was posted on April 20, 2017 by in MLB Baseball and tagged , , , .
%d bloggers like this: